The Commission on Government Forecasting and Accountability (CGFA) works with the Illinois Department of Revenue (IDOR) and other State agencies to monitor the revenues that are coming into the State coffers. CGFA publishes a monthly report on these cash flows. The monthly report also works with overall U.S. economic numbers to issue a monthly projection on the fiscal prospects of the State. These projections are useful in comparing tax and fee collections from prior years as well as gauging potential future State revenue performance.
The CGFA Labor Day report contains sobering news about Illinois’ near-term economic prospects. Global and national U.S. numbers appear to be pointing towards stalled employment growth and a reawakening of inflationary pressures.
In August 2025, the tax-and-fee cash flow numbers showed the State of Illinois experienced slow growth. The key personal income tax cash flow number ticked up 3.7% from a year earlier, rising from $1.804 billion in August 2024 to $1.87 billion in August 2025. This increase helped to overcome flat or negative trends in other cash flow lines, such as corporate income tax payments and the Illinois cigarette tax.
CGFA’s August 2025 report tracks Illinois cigarette tax rates and revenues over a 10-year period and describes the pressure on this cash flow exerted by long-term declines in conventional cigarette smoking. To some extent this has been counterbalanced by Illinoisans who consume other taxed nicotine products, such as e-cigarettes and nicotine pouches. However, in the recently concluded FY25 (ended June 30, 2025), State tax revenues from cigarettes continued to be almost three times as high as the tax revenues garnered from all other tobacco-related products ($191 million vs. $65 million). In May 2025, majority Democrats in the General Assembly enacted a major tax increase on non-cigarette tobacco products. Signed by Gov. Pritzker as P.A. 104-6, this tax increase may partly close this gap but will also serve as another “hidden” tax increase on Illinoisans.